May 22, 2026 2:44 PM
This week ended up being the most volatile for interest rates since late March. By Tuesday, the average mortgage lender was at the highest level in more than 9 months. But ultimately, Friday’s rates ended up the same as last Friday’s.
For the most part, the news cycle continues to be dominated by war-related headlines. Almost all of this week’s back-and-forth in financial markets can be lined up with war news. Tuesday’s rate spike was a notable exception. Volume data suggested that at least one very large holder of U.S. Treasuries was doing some very heavy selling.
Because rates are based on bonds, heavy selling has an immediate impact. It pushes bond prices lower and interest rates higher, all else equal. Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and not Treasuries, but MBS and Treasuries are almost always moving in the same direction on any given day. Thus the heavy Treasury selling spilled over to cause big price changes in MBS (and, thus, mortgage rates).
We can’t really know too much about why this selling occurred, but we do know that it was probably a very large investment fund based on the volume of trades. Even then, there’s no way to know if this was an outright bearish bet against rates or if that fund was simply getting out with the intent of reinvesting in different parts of the bond market in the coming days.
Thankfully, markets reacted to increased peace prospects on Wednesday with sharply lower oil prices and bond yields. Volatility decreased into the end of the week and the news cycle remained constructive enough for bonds to end the week near their best levels. In turn, mortgage rates were able to make it back to last Friday’s levels. The counterpoint is that last Friday’s level was the previous 9-month high at the time.
The market is fully closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. After that, the primary focus should continue to be on the Iran war peace process.
Recently Released Economic Data
Time
Event
Period
Actual
Forecast
Prior
Tuesday, May 19
10:00
1.4%
1.5%
Wednesday, May 20
14:00
FOMC Minutes
Thursday, May 21
8:30
May/16
Jobless Claims (k)
May/16
209K
210K
211K
8:30
Philly Fed Business Index
-0.4
26.7
Friday, May 22
10:00
Consumer Sentiment (ip)
44.8
48.2
49.8
Monday, May 25
0:00
Memorial Day
Tuesday, May 26
9:00
1.7%
9:00
0.8%
0.9%
10:00
CB Consumer Confidence (%)
93.1
92.8
Thursday, May 28
8:30
May/23
Jobless Claims (k)
May/23
215K
211K
209K
8:30
GDP (%)
1.6%
2.0%
0.5%
8:30
PCE (y/y) (%)
3.8%
3.5%
8:30
Durable goods (%)
7.9%
3.5%
0.8%
10:00
0.622M
0.67M
0.682M
Friday, May 29
9:45
Chicago PMI
62.7
50.5
49.2
Event Importance:
Low
Moderate
Important
Very Important
Around the Web
Friday, May 22, 2026
More Waller: Hawkish comments from the Fed Governor
Investing Live
Builders Breaking Ground at Fastest Pace in 2 Years
Mortgage News Daily
Borrowers Shift Toward ARMs as Fixed Rates Climb
Mortgage News Daily
Builder Sentiment Improves Slightly as Mortgage Rates Continue to Weigh on Demand
Mortgage News Daily
Cyclical Weakness for Townhouse Construction
Eye on Housing
Fed Governor Christopher Waller: Inflation is not headed in the right direction
CNBC
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Fed’s Goolsbee: We have a pretty significant inflation problem
Investing Live
Wednesday, May 20, 2026
Fed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show
CNBC
Breakthrough agreement in housing bill gives investors wins
CNBC
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
Rates matter — but execution matters more.
I call the listing agent on every offer to proactively position your buyer. I’m available 7 days a week because deals don’t happen Monday through Friday. And when needed, we can utilize our “cash-like” offer program to give your buyers a competitive edge in multiple-offer situations.
My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.
Average Mortgage Rates
Mortgage News Daily
Freddie Mac
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.87%
+0.06
15YR Fixed
6.38%
+0.03
30YR FHA
6.40%
+0.03
30YR Jumbo
6.92%
+0.02
7/6 SOFR
6.42%
+0.09
30YR VA
6.42%
+0.05
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.78%
-0.10
0.66
15YR Fixed
6.10%
-0.01
0.90
30YR FHA
6.46%
-0.13
0.82
30YR Jumbo
6.73%
-0.15
0.50
7/6 SOFR
5.98%
-0.18
0.88
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.66%
+0.45
0.00
15YR Fixed
5.98%
+0.51
0.00
MBS and Treasury
Price / Yield
Change
UMBS 5.5
98.91
–0.10
UMBS 6.0
101.06
–0.07
10 YR Treasury
4.777
+-0.19
30 YR Treasury
5.272
+-0.44
Pricing as of:
8/31 10:54PM
Recent Housing Data
Value
Change
Mortgage Apps
245.3
-0.97%
4.06M
-0.73%
Builder Confidence
2.94%
Building Permits
1.44M
5.56%
Housing Starts
1.24M
-13.17%
259 W Channel Rd
Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation