Monthly Archives: July 2026

Jul 31, 2026 5:43 PM

If there’s one thing to know about this week’s rate movement it’s that it left us almost exactly where we were last Friday. How we got there felt a bit more dramatic at times.

The week began on a hopeful note following Sunday’s news of a pause in the fighting in Iran. Oil prices moved lower in response and rates followed. Those good vibes lasted all the way through the first half of the week. It wasn’t until Wednesday afternoon’s Fed announcement that we saw a meaningful reversal. To make matters worse, it wasn’t really a logical reversal at first glance.

Futures markets suggested a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates this week. They did not hike. You might view that as good news for rates. Markets did too… initially.

Problems arose shortly into Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference. Different Fed watchers have slightly different ideas as to what mattered most, but most agree that the key concern involved mentioning alternative measurements of inflation data beyond the traditional Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data set.

Some took this as a suggestion that he may favor data that paints a better inflation picture in order to keep rates lower than they otherwise might be. The counterpoint is that he could simply be referencing a goal to expand the data set that the Fed considers without abandoning a commitment to 2% PCE inflation. This is arguably relevant at times when PCE is trending in a certain direction and more granular data could help suggest that trend continues.

Beyond that, some felt that the market gave the committee the green light to hike rates at this meeting and demonstrate a firm commitment to the inflation target, and by not hiking rates, some bias toward lower rates was revealed. At this point in Warsh’s tenure, it is too early to make such claims, but that’s not to say they didn’t inform the way some traders reacted.

Lastly, on a purely qualitative note, some traders reported feeling that Warsh was talking tough on inflation without doing enough to reassure markets that he knew what conditions would warrant a rate hike. Their conclusion: if Warsh won’t comment on the Fed’s current reaction function (a separate matter from forward guidance) then markets will take matters into their own hands by selling bonds in the longer end of the yield curve (e.g. 10yr and 30yr Treasuries and, to a lesser extent, mortgage rates).

This newsletter offers no judgment on the views shared above. The goal is to relate market chatter that followed the press conference. Objectively, all we know is that the long end of the yield curve did indeed swoon during the press conference despite initially reacting fairly well to the 2pm Fed announcement itself. For whatever else it’s worth, the swoon ended when the press conference ended.

The week’s only other key event was not so much an isolated event as the general trading dynamic that played out on Friday. It involved additional Treasury selling (which pushes rates higher) in response to currency intervention in Japanese Yen. When Japan seeks to bolster the Yen’s value, one strategy can involve selling sovereign debt of other countries. Excess selling pushes rates higher all else equal.

Esoteric currency considerations aside, Friday also saw oil prices move up moderately in addition to firmer inflation data in the form of the Employment Cost Index. Last but not least, it was also a month-end Friday in July–something that can create random, elevated volatility simply due to the way financial markets wrap up their accounting for the end of the month (with the July/Friday part simply connoting lighter trader participation which traditionally adds potential volatility).

All told, mortgage rates moved up to the second highest level in more than a year, but again, only modestly higher versus last Friday.

In the coming week, oil price volatility remains relevant. We’ll also get the latest jobs report on Friday which is always one of the two most closely watched economic reports as far as rates are concerned.

Recently Released Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Monday, Jul 27

8:30

Durable goods (%)

0.3%

2.5%

-4.5%

Tuesday, Jul 28

9:00

1.6%

1.3%

1.1%

9:00

2.2%

10:00

CB Consumer Confidence (%)

90.8

92.3

91.2

Wednesday, Jul 29

14:00

Fed Interest Rate Decision

3.75%

14:30

Fed Press Conference

Thursday, Jul 30

8:30

Jul/25

Jobless Claims (k)

Jul/25

197K

200K

187K

8:30

GDP (%)

1.5%

2.1%

8:30

Core PCE (y/y) (%)

3.3%

3.4%

8:30

Core PCE (m/m) (%)

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

Friday, Jul 31

8:30

Employment costs (%)

0.9%

0.8%

0.9%

9:45

Chicago PMI

57.6

56.7

10:00

Consumer Sentiment (ip)

55.2

54.0

49.5

Monday, Aug 03

10:00

ISM Manufacturing PMI

55.6

53.3

Tuesday, Aug 04

10:00

USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml)

7.359M

7.4M

7.594M

Wednesday, Aug 05

8:15

ADP jobs (k)

10:00

ISM N-Mfg PMI

54.1

54.5

54.0

Thursday, Aug 06

8:30

Aug/01

Jobless Claims (k)

Aug/01

199K

202K

197K

Friday, Aug 07

8:30

Non Farm Payrolls (k)

-23K

8:30

Unemployment rate mm (%)

4.1%

4.2%

Event Importance:

Low

Moderate

Important

Very Important

Around the Web

Friday, July 31, 2026

Kashkari – Statement on My FOMC Dissent

Minneapolis Fed

US Treasury informed banks that it may intervene in Japan’s yen, source says

Reuters

Barkin: Rate decision still a “close call”

Investing Live

Fed’s Logan: ‘Prices have continued to rise too rapidly’

CNBC

US labor costs increase in second quarter as wage growth picks up

Reuters

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Eye on Housing

U.S. economy slowed to 1.5% growth rate in Q2; June core inflation at 3.3%

CNBC

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

The big focus now is on the potential for a September rate hike after the Fed stands pat

Marketwatch

Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.75%.

Investing Live

Friday, July 31, 2026

Mortgage News Daily

Mortgage Applications Fall 6.4% as Rates Continue Upward March

Mortgage News Daily

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Median Lot Value Stabilizes as Regional Trends Diverge

Eye on Housing

Consumer confidence stands at 90.8 in July, missing expectations

CNBC

JCHS

Monday, July 27, 2026

Eye on Housing

Rates matter — but execution matters more.

I call the listing agent on every offer to proactively position your buyer. I’m available 7 days a week because deals don’t happen Monday through Friday. And when needed, we can utilize our “cash-like” offer program to give your buyers a competitive edge in multiple-offer situations.

My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.

Average Mortgage Rates

Mortgage News Daily

Freddie Mac

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.87%

+0.06

15YR Fixed

6.38%

+0.03

30YR FHA

6.40%

+0.03

30YR Jumbo

6.92%

+0.02

7/6 SOFR

6.42%

+0.09

30YR VA

6.42%

+0.05

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.78%

-0.10

0.66

15YR Fixed

6.10%

-0.01

0.90

30YR FHA

6.46%

-0.13

0.82

30YR Jumbo

6.73%

-0.15

0.50

7/6 SOFR

5.98%

-0.18

0.88

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.66%

+0.45

0.00

15YR Fixed

5.98%

+0.51

0.00

MBS and Treasury

Price / Yield

Change

UMBS 5.5

98.91

–0.10

UMBS 6.0

101.06

–0.07

10 YR Treasury

4.777

+-0.19

30 YR Treasury

5.201

-0.05

Pricing as of:

8/31 10:55PM

Recent Housing Data

Value

Change

Mortgage Apps

245.3

-0.97%

4.06M

-0.73%

Builder Confidence

2.94%

Building Permits

1.44M

5.56%

Housing Starts

1.24M

-13.17%

259 W Channel Rd

Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation

Jul 24, 2026 4:36 PM

While the milestones may be significant, the underlying reasons for them remain simple.

Let’s start with the milestones, even though they’re not the fun kind. On Thursday, average 30yr fixed mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over a year. The average lender jumped over 6.8% after being closer to 6.5% at the end of June.

If we think about what’s happened since the end of June, the calculus is brutally simple: a resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war coincided with a resurgence in fuel prices which, in turn, pushed rates higher due to inflation implications (higher inflation = higher rates, all else equal).

There are several ways to track fuel prices both in terms of today’s cash value and the future value for any given month over the next few years. In the slightly bigger picture, gasoline futures for a specific month later in 2026 have done the best job of showing the war’s impact on bonds (and bonds, of course, directly dictate interest rate movement).

Over shorter time horizons, near-term crude oil prices (either cash or the “front month” futures contract) tend to correlate the best with the bond market. The following chart shows that. It also confirms that inflation is the key consideration because bonds/rates were able to move nicely lower last week following lower-than-expected inflation readings in two key reports.

The bad news is clear, but is there any good news? Yes, actually, depending on your definition of “good.” While it may not be much of a consolation, it’s worth remembering that rates are the highest in a year because that year has been the best stretch of good luck we’ve seen since 2021. Otherwise, 6.8+ would be just another mid-range mark in the post-covid era.

The even better news is simply this: if rates have largely moved up due to oil prices, then they should be able to recover a meaningful amount of what was lost if oil prices find a way to move back down. Of course that’s a big “if” in terms of timing, but it’s useful to know that there’s a clear path toward lower rates that depends on things that could actually happen in the near term.

Going forward, it clearly makes sense to expect rates and oil to continue their correlation. In addition, next week’s Fed announcement is a potential source of volatility independent of fuel prices. The market has priced in nearly a 40% chance of a Fed rate hike despite 9 out of 10 traders expecting the Fed to keep rates steady. Such a dislocation between Fed Funds Futures and market sentiment is a recipe for a larger reaction than normal to a Fed announcement.

Recently Released Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Thursday, Jul 23

8:30

Jul/18

Jobless Claims (k)

Jul/18

187K

212K

208K

Friday, Jul 24

10:00

0.628M

0.61M

0.58M

Monday, Jul 27

8:30

Durable goods (%)

0.3%

2.5%

-4.5%

Tuesday, Jul 28

9:00

1.6%

1.3%

1.1%

9:00

2.2%

10:00

CB Consumer Confidence (%)

90.8

92.3

91.2

Wednesday, Jul 29

14:00

Fed Interest Rate Decision

3.75%

14:30

Fed Press Conference

Thursday, Jul 30

8:30

Jul/25

Jobless Claims (k)

Jul/25

197K

200K

187K

8:30

GDP (%)

1.5%

2.1%

8:30

Core PCE (y/y) (%)

3.3%

3.4%

Friday, Jul 31

8:30

Employment costs (%)

0.9%

0.8%

0.9%

9:45

Chicago PMI

57.6

56.7

10:00

Consumer Sentiment (ip)

55.2

54.0

49.5

Event Importance:

Low

Moderate

Important

Very Important

Around the Web

Friday, July 24, 2026

Mortgage News Daily

Refis Take a Back Seat as Purchase Demand Rebounds

Mortgage News Daily

Pakistan is exploring a path toward a resumption of US – Iran talks. Oil moves lower

Investing Live

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Brent crosses $100 as oil prices spike on Houthi strikes

CNBC

Massachusetts Considers Eliminating Single-Family Zoning in a Bid To Boost Housing Supply

Realtor.com

Odds of Federal Reserve rate hike surge as oil prices rip higher

CNBC

Eye on Housing

US initial jobless claims 187K versus 212K expected

Investing Live

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Jamie Dimon says he wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices

Fox Business

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Shrinking Lots: Trend Levels Off as Smaller Lots Remain the Norm

Eye on Housing

Wall Street is selling more rental homes, as buying ban takes effect

CNBC

Monday, July 20, 2026

Eye on Housing

Rates matter — but execution matters more.

I call the listing agent on every offer to proactively position your buyer. I’m available 7 days a week because deals don’t happen Monday through Friday. And when needed, we can utilize our “cash-like” offer program to give your buyers a competitive edge in multiple-offer situations.

My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.

Average Mortgage Rates

Mortgage News Daily

Freddie Mac

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.87%

+0.06

15YR Fixed

6.38%

+0.03

30YR FHA

6.40%

+0.03

30YR Jumbo

6.92%

+0.02

7/6 SOFR

6.42%

+0.09

30YR VA

6.42%

+0.05

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.78%

-0.10

0.66

15YR Fixed

6.10%

-0.01

0.90

30YR FHA

6.46%

-0.13

0.82

30YR Jumbo

6.73%

-0.15

0.50

7/6 SOFR

5.98%

-0.18

0.88

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.66%

+0.45

0.00

15YR Fixed

5.98%

+0.51

0.00

MBS and Treasury

Price / Yield

Change

UMBS 5.5

98.91

–0.10

UMBS 6.0

101.06

–0.07

10 YR Treasury

4.777

+-0.19

30 YR Treasury

5.201

-0.05

Pricing as of:

8/31 10:55PM

Recent Housing Data

Value

Change

Mortgage Apps

245.3

-0.97%

4.06M

-0.73%

Builder Confidence

2.94%

Building Permits

1.44M

5.56%

Housing Starts

1.24M

-13.17%

259 W Channel Rd

Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation

Jul 17, 2026 4:24 PM

It was an eventful week for mortgage rates and the bond market, but ultimately a decent one. Monday’s rates matched the highest levels in nearly a year, but by Friday, we were actually just a hair lower versus last Friday. Here’s how we got there.

Following news of more U.S. air strikes in Iran, fuel prices jumped higher on Monday. As has been the case for much of July, higher oil/gas/diesel puts upward pressure on rates via inflation implications (because rates are driven by bonds and bonds hate inflation).

Coincidentally, Tuesday and Wednesday were set to offer two major updates on inflation via the government’s Consumer and Producer Price Indices (CPI and PPI). Fed Governor Christopher Waller added to the tension by saying the Fed would need to consider raising rates “in the near term” if those reports came in hot.

Waller’s comments represented the first major dose of forward guidance from a Fed official since Warsh took the helm. Warsh has repeatedly expressed his intent to minimize forward guidance from the Fed. As such, the candor and content of Waller’s comments had a bigger impact than they otherwise might have if multiple Fed speakers had been making similar comments over the past few weeks. Simply put, it led the market to price in the highest odds of a Fed rate hike since the week of the last Fed announcement in mid June.

Thankfully, the inflation reports pushed back in the other direction, and forcefully! Data’s impact on bonds is almost always driven by the gap between the median professional forecast and the actual results. The key metric in Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell farther below that forecast than any other CPI release in more than a year. Other components of the data were similarly below forecasts.

The following day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) put on a similar show with a much bigger drop than expected. Additionally, there was also a substantial downward revision to the previous report. All told, annual PPI ended up an entire 1.0% lower than initially reported last month.

After both of the inflation reports, the market reaction was immediately apparent–especially in terms of Fed rate hike expectations. Traders use Fed Funds Futures to bet directly on the level of the Fed Funds rate at various points in the future. Before Tuesday’s data, traders saw the Fed Funds Rate just above 4% (effectively suggesting a 100% chance of a rate hike) by December. After Wednesday’s PPI, that had fallen to 3.86% (effectively pricing out most of the risk of a 2026 rate hike).

As we often discuss, when the Fed actually hikes or cuts, it means almost nothing for longer-term rates like mortgages (it’s old news by the time it happens). But changes in Fed hike/cut expectations have a big impact. This week was no exception. Longer term bonds like 10yr Treasuries and the bonds that underlie mortgage rates improved sharply–even if not quite as sharply as Fed Funds Futures. This resulted in the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving down roughly an eighth of a point between Monday and Friday.

The economic calendar is very light next week and the Fed will be in its blackout period ahead of the late-July announcement. That removes many of the usual scheduled sources of volatility, but war-related headlines remain capable of causing fuel price shocks that spill over into rates. Big moves in stocks could also cause spillover in the bond market in either direction (i.e. a big stock sell-off could help rates whereas a big stock bounce could pull rates a bit higher).

Recently Released Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Tuesday, Jul 14

8:30

m/m CORE CPI (%)

0.2%

8:30

y/y CORE CPI (%)

2.6%

2.8%

2.9%

Wednesday, Jul 15

8:30

Core PPI m/m (%)

0.2%

0.4%

8:30

Core PPI y/y (%)

4.7%

5.2%

4.9%

Thursday, Jul 16

8:30

Jul/11

Jobless Claims (k)

Jul/11

208K

217K

215K

8:30

Philly Fed Business Index

41.4

10.3

8:30

Retail Sales (%)

0.2%

0.9%

10:00

-5.4%

-0.5%

3.8%

Friday, Jul 17

10:00

Consumer Sentiment (ip)

54.4

49.5

Event Importance:

Low

Moderate

Important

Very Important

Around the Web

Friday, July 17, 2026

Housing Starts Snap Back as May’s Multifamily Drop Proves Short-Lived

Mortgage News Daily

Builder Confidence Remains Stuck Near Post-Recession Lows

Mortgage News Daily

Higher Refi Demand Despite Higher Rates

Mortgage News Daily

CNBC

US June import prices +0.3% vs -0.7% expected

Investing Live

Thursday, July 16, 2026

US weekly jobless claims fall; labor market remains stable

Reuters

US June retail sales +0.2% vs +0.2% expected

Investing Live

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Building Material Prices Continue to Rise Despite Energy Price Declines

Eye on Housing

Fed’s Williams: Encouraging signs inflation has peaked, should edge down in coming quarters

CNBC

Wholesale prices unexpectedly declined 0.3% in June on big drop in gasoline

CNBC

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Fed’s Goolsbee: June CPI inflation data was surprisingly benign

Investing Live

Heres the inflation breakdown for June 2026 in one chart

CNBC

Fed Chairman Warsh promises inflation will be a ‘thing of the past,’ cites ‘mistake’ of prior policy

CNBC

Consumer prices rose 3.5% annually in June, less than expected as energy prices eased

CNBC

Monday, July 13, 2026

FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy if near-term CPI is elevated : Fed’s Waller

CNBC

Rates matter — but execution matters more.

I call the listing agent on every offer to proactively position your buyer. I’m available 7 days a week because deals don’t happen Monday through Friday. And when needed, we can utilize our “cash-like” offer program to give your buyers a competitive edge in multiple-offer situations.

My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.

Average Mortgage Rates

Mortgage News Daily

Freddie Mac

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.87%

+0.06

15YR Fixed

6.38%

+0.03

30YR FHA

6.40%

+0.03

30YR Jumbo

6.92%

+0.02

7/6 SOFR

6.42%

+0.09

30YR VA

6.42%

+0.05

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.78%

-0.10

0.66

15YR Fixed

6.10%

-0.01

0.90

30YR FHA

6.46%

-0.13

0.82

30YR Jumbo

6.73%

-0.15

0.50

7/6 SOFR

5.98%

-0.18

0.88

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.66%

+0.45

0.00

15YR Fixed

5.98%

+0.51

0.00

MBS and Treasury

Price / Yield

Change

UMBS 5.5

98.91

–0.10

UMBS 6.0

101.06

–0.07

10 YR Treasury

4.777

+-0.19

30 YR Treasury

5.201

-0.05

Pricing as of:

8/31 10:55PM

Recent Housing Data

Value

Change

Mortgage Apps

245.3

-0.97%

4.06M

-0.73%

Builder Confidence

2.94%

Building Permits

1.44M

5.56%

Housing Starts

1.24M

-13.17%

259 W Channel Rd

Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation

A Note From Your Mortgage Broker Jay

The ongoing conflict in Iran has put upward pressure on oil prices, and that’s been filtering through to mortgage rates. When oil spikes, it tends to push inflation expectations higher, and higher inflation expectations push rates up. The relationship isn’t always direct or immediate, but it’s real, and it’s part of why we’ve seen more volatility lately even as the broader rate trend has been gradually improving.

The short version: rates are still better than they were 18 months ago, and we’re continuing to find opportunities for clients who bought at peak rates to refinance without paying closing costs. If you haven’t heard from me recently, send me a note. There may be a window worth looking at.

Keys to the Close: Second Mortgage Case Study

A client came to me carrying about $100,000 in high-interest debt, credit cards and a personal loan, plus they wanted to do a $75,000 kitchen remodel. They’d built up solid equity in their home, so we looked at whether a second mortgage could solve both problems at once.

We structured a $175,000 second mortgage at a much lower rate than their existing debt. The result: their combined monthly payments dropped from $2,682 to $1,284. That’s nearly $1,400 a month freed up, and they got the kitchen remodel funded at the same time.

Second mortgages aren’t right for everyone, but in situations like this, where equity is available and the debt load is significant, they can be a genuinely useful tool. The key is making sure the numbers actually work, not just on paper but for the borrower’s specific situation. That’s what we do.

Opening Doors: FHA vs. Conventional

One of the most common questions I get from first-time buyers is whether they should go FHA or conventional. Here’s the honest breakdown:

FHA loans are government-backed and allow down payments as low as 3.5% with a credit score of 580 or higher. They’re more flexible on credit and debt-to-income ratios. The tradeoff is mortgage insurance, which you pay upfront and monthly, and which doesn’t go away automatically unless you refinance.

Conventional loans require stronger credit (typically 620+) and a slightly higher down payment, but if you put 20% down you avoid mortgage insurance entirely. Even at 10% or 15% down, conventional mortgage insurance is often cheaper than FHA’s and can be removed once you hit 20% equity.

In high-cost areas like Los Angeles, FHA loan limits cap out around $1.1M, so for buyers purchasing above that threshold, conventional is usually the only path. For buyers who need maximum flexibility on credit or cash reserves, FHA can be the better fit. There’s no universal right answer. It depends on your credit, your down payment, your timeline, and your goals. That’s the conversation I want to have with you before you’re under contract.

The Self-Made Buyer: Interest-Only Loans

Interest-only loans get a lot of side-eye, usually from people who watched too many 2008 documentaries. Fair, but the reality is more nuanced.

An interest-only loan lets you pay just the interest portion of your mortgage for a set period, typically 5 to 10 years, before converting to a fully amortizing payment. During that initial period, your required payment is lower, which frees up cash flow.

This can be genuinely useful for high-income borrowers with variable income, like business owners, self-employed professionals, or people who receive large annual bonuses. The lower required payment gives flexibility in lean months, and in strong months they can pay down principal aggressively if they choose to.

The risk is real: if you’re not building equity through payments, you’re relying on appreciation and any voluntary principal payments to build your position. In a flat or declining market, that can leave you exposed. This is a product that works well for the right borrower and goes sideways for the wrong one. If you’re curious whether it fits your situation, I’m happy to run the numbers.

Off the Clock: Cooking with Kids

My kids have decided they want to cook. This is both wonderful and terrifying. We started simple: scrambled eggs, quesadillas, pancakes. The rule is that if they make it, they eat it, which has led to some interesting negotiations around the definition of “done.”

What I’ve noticed is that kids who cook their own food have a completely different relationship with it. Things they normally push around a plate get eaten when they were part of making them. I’m not saying cooking cured pickiness, but it’s moved the needle. More importantly, they’re learning something real, and we get 30 minutes together that isn’t screens or homework or logistics. Worth the mess, most nights.

As always, if any of this raised a question about rates, what you qualify for, or whether now is the right time to make a move, that’s exactly what I’m here for. Jay Bridges, Priority Capital Corporation. 310-994-8900 | [email protected]

Jul 10, 2026 3:35 PM

For 3 months, they were almost inseparable. Then in June, they went their separate ways. Now oil and rates are back together in July, for the most part.

Specifically, movement in oil prices was highly correlated with movement in rates (represented below by 10yr Treasury yields) after the onset of the Iran war. The reasoning was simple: higher fuel prices implied higher inflation, and higher inflation tends to result in higher rates.

The oil/rates correlation is never perfect, but it generally remained strong until ceasefire confirmation in early June. At that point, oil went south while bonds decided to stick around for a while for their own reasons (and also because gas/diesel prices haven’t fallen nearly as fast as oil prices).

Before continuing, let’s be clear on the oil/rate relationship in the bigger picture. Because fuel is so central to inflation and because inflation is so central to rates, it’s tempting to conclude that oil and rates should

always

be correlating to some extent. In practice, bonds have a lot of other things on their mind besides inflation. This results in noticeable departures from the correlated trend over the years.

Nonetheless, recent correlation is understandable given the violence of the move in oil/fuel prices combined with an absence of other strong motivations for the bond market. This point was driven home last week when the jobs report caused a big bond-specific reaction that didn’t involve oil.

The present week was a different story. Bonds/rates had very little by way of new motivation or data. Meanwhile, the end of the U.S./Iran ceasefire was big news for oil. Prices spiked and the apathetic bond market was quickly willing to be taken along for the ride.

As the chart above shows, July has seen a high degree of correlation return. The only hitch was on Friday afternoon when bond yields continued to drift higher as oil prices remained lower day-over-day. There are a number of ways to justify this, but the simplest would be that traders were positioning for next week’s testimony from Fed Chair Warsh as well as two key inflation reports. Adding credence to this theory is the fact that Fed Funds Futures experienced an even sharper move than longer-term Treasuries.

If all of the above sounds a bit dramatic, mortgage rates agree. The Treasury charts place rate volatility under a microscope. In the bigger picture, mortgage rates are merely drifting sideways in a fairly narrow range–albeit a range near the 10-month highs.

Recently Released Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Monday, Jul 06

10:00

ISM N-Mfg PMI

54.0

54.5

Tuesday, Jul 07

11:00

Consumer Inflation Expectations

3.7%

3.5%

Wednesday, Jul 08

14:00

FOMC Minutes

Thursday, Jul 09

8:30

Jul/04

Jobless Claims (k)

Jul/04

215K

218K

215K

10:00

Existing home sales (ml)

4.09M

4.20M

4.17M

Tuesday, Jul 14

8:30

y/y Headline CPI (%)

3.5%

3.8%

4.2%

10:00

Fed Chair Warsh Testimony

Wednesday, Jul 15

8:30

PPI y/y

5.5%

6.2%

6.5%

10:00

Fed Chair Warsh Testimony

Thursday, Jul 16

8:30

Jul/11

Jobless Claims (k)

Jul/11

208K

217K

215K

8:30

Philly Fed Business Index

41.4

10.3

8:30

Retail Sales (%)

0.2%

0.9%

10:00

-5.4%

-0.5%

3.8%

10:00

Business Inventories (% )

0.3%

0.5%

Friday, Jul 17

9:15

Industrial Production (%)

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

10:00

Consumer Sentiment (ip)

54.4

49.5

Event Importance:

Low

Moderate

Important

Very Important

Around the Web

Friday, July 10, 2026

Mortgage Rates End Week Roughly Unchanged

Mortgage News Daily

Fed report to Congress sees ‘stepped up’ inflation in the spring

Investing Live

Mortgage News Daily

Mortgage Applications Ease During Holiday-Shortened Week

Mortgage News Daily

Trump says U.S. to continue talks with Iran despite scrapped ceasefire

CNBC

2025 New Single-Family Starts by Census Division

Eye on Housing

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Remodeling Market Sentiment Remains in Positive Territory in Second Quarter

Eye on Housing

Here’s what to know about the housing bill that could become law Friday

CNBC

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Warsh’s task forces to reshape the Federal Reserve

CNBC

U.S. Treasury yields soar after Donald Trump says Iran ceasefire is over

CNBC

Fed meeting minutes to show ‘family fight’ over rates. The squabble could drag on for a while

CNBC

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Fed’s Williams sees steady trend-like growth for the US economy

Investing Live

Monday, July 6, 2026

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June 54.0 vs 54.0 estimate

Investing Live

Rates matter — but execution matters more.

I call the listing agent on every offer to proactively position your buyer. I’m available 7 days a week because deals don’t happen Monday through Friday. And when needed, we can utilize our “cash-like” offer program to give your buyers a competitive edge in multiple-offer situations.

My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.

Average Mortgage Rates

Mortgage News Daily

Freddie Mac

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.87%

+0.06

15YR Fixed

6.38%

+0.03

30YR FHA

6.40%

+0.03

30YR Jumbo

6.92%

+0.02

7/6 SOFR

6.42%

+0.09

30YR VA

6.42%

+0.05

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.78%

-0.10

0.66

15YR Fixed

6.10%

-0.01

0.90

30YR FHA

6.46%

-0.13

0.82

30YR Jumbo

6.73%

-0.15

0.50

7/6 SOFR

5.98%

-0.18

0.88

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.66%

+0.45

0.00

15YR Fixed

5.98%

+0.51

0.00

MBS and Treasury

Price / Yield

Change

UMBS 5.5

98.91

–0.10

UMBS 6.0

101.06

–0.07

10 YR Treasury

4.777

+-0.19

30 YR Treasury

5.201

-0.05

Pricing as of:

8/31 10:55PM

Recent Housing Data

Value

Change

Mortgage Apps

245.3

-0.97%

4.06M

-0.73%

Builder Confidence

2.94%

Building Permits

1.44M

5.56%

Housing Starts

1.24M

-13.17%

259 W Channel Rd

Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation

Jul 02, 2026 2:01 PM

Last week’s newsletter flagged an uncommonly high level of quarter-end trading volatility as a key contributor to a surprise mid-week rate spike. We got another dose of that drama this week, but things calmed down by the end.

Bond market drama creates rate drama because rates are directly based on bonds. Due to the immense size and complexity of the bond market (and broader financial market), and because trading strategies can vary based on who’s doing the trading, there is no satisfying way to measure exactly why things happen the way they do at quarter-end.

What we do know is that a massive amount of money changes hands in a very short time window, with a lot of last-minute settlement taking place right up to the end-of-quarter cut-off. There’s also quarter-end trading that begins impacting trading levels several weeks in advance, but it was the “last minute” stuff that hit the bond market this week.

This resulted in Tuesday’s rates jumping quickly higher for no apparent reason. Wednesday added a bit of an aftershock as mortgage lenders got caught up with Tuesday’s volatility (some lenders don’t fully account for all the volatility in a trading day if it happens late enough in the day).

All told, this took the average 30yr fixed rate an eighth of a point higher on the week as of Wednesday. What happened next was a mixed blessing depending on which side you root for. Fans of strong jobs growth got bad news on Thursday morning with June’s job count coming in at 57k–well short of the 110k median forecast.

But as is ever the case, bad news for the labor market is generally good news for rates. Bonds improved following the data and mortgage rates managed to recover almost half of the ground lost earlier in the week.

Nonetheless, the week ends with 30yr fixed rates 0.07% higher than last week for the average lender. NOTE: weekly survey-based rate data (i.e. MBA/Freddie Mac) showed lower rates this week because their methodologies have not yet captured Wednesday’s rate spike (Freddie technically has, but its impact is diluted because it’s averaged with the preceding 4 business days).

Bottom line: rates are higher this week, but thankfully still not as high as they were in early June or mid-May. Next week brings a smattering of economic data in addition to the minutes of the most recent Fed meeting. The market continues pricing in a higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes by the end of the year.

Recently Released Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Tuesday, Jun 30

9:00

1.7%

9:00

1.1%

0.9%

0.8%

9:45

Chicago PMI

56.7

58.1

62.7

10:00

USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml)

7.594M

7.30M

7.618M

Wednesday, Jul 01

8:15

ADP jobs (k)

113K

122K

9:00

Fed Chair Warsh Speech

10:00

ISM Manufacturing PMI

53.3

54.0

Thursday, Jul 02

8:30

Jun/27

Jobless Claims (k)

Jun/27

215K

220K

215K

8:30

Non Farm Payrolls (k)

110K

172K

8:30

Unemployment rate mm (%)

4.2%

4.3%

Monday, Jul 06

10:00

ISM N-Mfg PMI

54.0

54.5

Wednesday, Jul 08

14:00

FOMC Minutes

Thursday, Jul 09

8:30

Jul/04

Jobless Claims (k)

Jul/04

215K

218K

215K

10:00

Existing home sales (ml)

4.09M

4.20M

4.17M

Event Importance:

Low

Moderate

Important

Very Important

Around the Web

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Mortgage Applications Flat, Purchase Activity Edges Higher

Mortgage News Daily

U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2%

CNBC

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Residential Construction Spending Increases in May Due to Remodeling

Eye on Housing

US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 53.3 versus 54.0 estimate

Investing Live

Fed Chairman Warsh: Inflation expectations and risks have come down

CNBC

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Consumer Confidence Inched Up in June

Eye on Housing

Construction Job Openings Increase

Eye on Housing

JOLTs job openings 7.594M vs 7.300M estimate

Investing Live

Rates matter — but execution matters more.

I call the listing agent on every offer to proactively position your buyer. I’m available 7 days a week because deals don’t happen Monday through Friday. And when needed, we can utilize our “cash-like” offer program to give your buyers a competitive edge in multiple-offer situations.

My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.

Average Mortgage Rates

Mortgage News Daily

Freddie Mac

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.87%

+0.06

15YR Fixed

6.38%

+0.03

30YR FHA

6.40%

+0.03

30YR Jumbo

6.92%

+0.02

7/6 SOFR

6.42%

+0.09

30YR VA

6.42%

+0.05

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.78%

-0.10

0.66

15YR Fixed

6.10%

-0.01

0.90

30YR FHA

6.46%

-0.13

0.82

30YR Jumbo

6.73%

-0.15

0.50

7/6 SOFR

5.98%

-0.18

0.88

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.66%

+0.45

0.00

15YR Fixed

5.98%

+0.51

0.00

MBS and Treasury

Price / Yield

Change

UMBS 5.5

98.91

–0.10

UMBS 6.0

101.06

–0.07

10 YR Treasury

4.777

+-0.19

30 YR Treasury

5.201

-0.05

Pricing as of:

8/31 10:55PM

Recent Housing Data

Value

Change

Mortgage Apps

245.3

-0.97%

4.06M

-0.73%

Builder Confidence

2.94%

Building Permits

1.44M

5.56%

Housing Starts

1.24M

-13.17%

259 W Channel Rd

Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation