August 2026 - Jay Bridges

Aug 28

Jackson Hole Jump For Mortgage Rates

By Jay Bridges | Housing News | No Comments

Aug 28, 2026 5:15 PM

Mortgage rates were on track for a fairly uneventful week until Friday morning, when a speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh triggered a sharp bond market sell-off. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate jumped to its highest level in just over 3 weeks.

The week started with more headlines about Treasury buying back its own bonds. Despite widespread news coverage, buybacks failed to inspire sustained reaction last week, and traders were even less interested this week. At best, buybacks can change the balance between shorter and longer-term yields, but they do not create broad, lasting relief for rates. In practical terms, Monday’s modest improvement had much more to do with lower oil prices.

That pattern continued Tuesday as hopes for progress toward a peace deal pushed oil and Treasury yields lower together. Oil has been unusually important for rates because any lasting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about energy costs and inflation.

Wednesday brought July’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The core reading, which excludes food and energy, matched forecasts when rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent (0.2 vs 0.2). But at an unrounded value of 0.247%, it was virtually as high as possible without rounding up to 0.3. Markets often inspect these unrounded numbers to glean directional cues from otherwise uninspiring data. That exercise added some pressure on rates on Wednesday, but it wasn’t the week’s biggest story.

That honor went to Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. Warsh described the economy and labor market as strong, said the Fed’s 2% inflation target was firm and fixed, and noted that present rate levels don’t appear to be doing anything to restrain financial conditions.

Markets interpreted the combination as a warning that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates and may be more willing to raise them again if inflation remains elevated. The following chart shows the changes in the expected Fed Funds Rate at the next Fed meeting in September. In terms of % probability, this represents more than a 50% chance of a rate hike.

It always bears repeating that the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates. But mortgage pricing reacts to the bond market’s expectations about what the Fed is likely to do. Short-term Treasury yields rose more than one-tenth of a percentage point after Warsh’s speech. Medium term Treasuries (which correlate strongly with the bonds that dictate mortgage rates) felt a good amount of that pressure. The net effect was the sharpest mortgage rate spike in several weeks.

The saving grace is that Friday’s average mortgage rates were only modestly higher than those seen last Friday.

Next week brings the glut of top-tier economic data typically seen at the start of the month with the star of the show always being Friday’s big jobs report. Weaker employment data could challenge Warsh’s upbeat assessment and help rates recover. Stronger data would reinforce Friday’s message and could keep rates under pressure. Fuel prices remain the other major wild card.

Recently Released Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Tuesday, Aug 25

9:00

2.3%

2.2%

9:00

2.1%

1.7%

1.6%

10:00

0.607M

0.62M

0.628M

10:00

CB Consumer Confidence (%)

89.4

90.2

90.8

Wednesday, Aug 26

8:30

Core PCE (y/y) (%)

3.3%

8:30

PCE (y/y) (%)

3.7%

3.6%

3.7%

8:30

GDP (%)

1.5%

2.1%

Thursday, Aug 27

8:30

Aug/22

Jobless Claims (k)

Aug/22

203K

208K

206K

Friday, Aug 28

10:00

Consumer Sentiment (ip)

51.7

51.0

55.2

10:07

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers remarks from Jackson Hole

Upcoming Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Forecast

Prior

Tuesday, Sep 01

10:00

ISM Manufacturing PMI

55.2

55.6

10:00

USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml)

7.3M

7.359M

10:00

Construction spending (%)

-0.1%

Wednesday, Sep 02

8:15

ADP jobs (k)

10:00

Factory orders mm (%)

0.6%

-0.3%

Thursday, Sep 03

8:30

Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final

1.3%

8:30

Trade Gap (bl)

$-90B

$-73.3B

10:00

ISM N-Mfg PMI

54.3

54.1

Friday, Sep 04

8:30

Non Farm Payrolls (k)

-23K

8:30

Unemployment rate mm (%)

4.1%

Event Importance:

Low

Moderate

Important

Very Important

Around the Web

Friday, August 28, 2026

Mortgage Rates Jump to 3-Week Highs After Jackson Hole Speech

Mortgage News Daily

Mortgage Demand Remains Stalled as Rates Move Higher

Mortgage News Daily

How to interpret the annual jobs revision

The Budget Lab

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Fed’s Hammack says ‘now is the time to act’ on raising interest rates

CNBC

Kansas City Fed’s Schmid says inflation ‘stubborn’ and ‘sticky,’ policy rate not restrictive

CNBC

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Feds preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July

CNBC

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Cash is no longer king in home sales

CNBC

Monday, August 24, 2026

Cost of Materials Rises, Especially for Smaller Builders

Eye on Housing

Rates matter — but execution matters more.

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Average Mortgage Rates

Mortgage News Daily

Freddie Mac

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.87%

+0.06

15YR Fixed

6.38%

+0.03

30YR FHA

6.40%

+0.03

30YR Jumbo

6.92%

+0.02

7/6 SOFR

6.42%

+0.09

30YR VA

6.42%

+0.05

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.78%

-0.10

0.66

15YR Fixed

6.10%

-0.01

0.90

30YR FHA

6.46%

-0.13

0.82

30YR Jumbo

6.73%

-0.15

0.50

7/6 SOFR

5.98%

-0.18

0.88

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.66%

+0.45

0.00

15YR Fixed

5.98%

+0.51

0.00

MBS and Treasury

Price / Yield

Change

UMBS 5.5

98.91

–0.10

UMBS 6.0

101.06

–0.07

10 YR Treasury

4.777

+-0.19

30 YR Treasury

5.201

-0.05

Pricing as of:

8/31 10:55PM

Recent Housing Data

Value

Change

Mortgage Apps

245.3

-0.97%

4.06M

-0.73%

Builder Confidence

2.94%

Building Permits

1.44M

5.56%

Housing Starts

1.24M

-13.17%

259 W Channel Rd

Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation

Aug 21

Mountains vs Molehills: What Rates Really Cared About This Week

By Jay Bridges | Housing News | No Comments

Aug 21, 2026 4:26 PM

Mortgage rates ended the week moderately higher, but things could have been slightly worse without Wednesday’s surprisingly sharp drop in longer-term Treasury yields (a key benchmark for mortgage rates). The cause was an announcement about Treasury’s bond buyback program–a subject that made far more noise than its lasting impact warranted.

The week began with the same market mover we’ve grown accustomed to since the Iran war: oil. Renewed threats from Iran and the seizure of a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher on Monday. By Tuesday morning, the 10yr yield briefly touched 4.75%, a level that attracted enough bond buying to help the market stabilize.

Wednesday began with news that Treasury would at least double the maximum size of certain long-term buyback operations, from $2 billion to $4 billion, beginning September 9th. Despite the name, this isn’t quantitative easing (QE), and Treasury isn’t creating money to force rates lower. It already buys back older, harder-to-trade bonds to improve market liquidity, funding the purchases through its normal cash and borrowing operations.

Investors nevertheless reacted aggressively because the change was focused on Treasury debt maturing in 10 to 30 years. The 30yr yield fell almost one-tenth of a percentage point, while the 2yr yield moved slightly HIGHER (with an “h”). That divergence is the key clue: this was not broad stimulus for rates. Mortgage rates fell as well, but not nearly as much because mortgage-backed bonds typically last only 5 to 7 years as homeowners sell, refinance, or otherwise pay off their loans.

By Thursday, the one-time adjustment had largely run its course. The headlines continued after Treasury Secretary Bessent discussed the program on television, but the actual trading returned to oil prices. Oil jumped overnight, and Treasury yields followed almost perfectly. Elevated corporate bond issuance from hyperscalers added background pressure (an esoteric topic, but suffice it to say that heavy corporate bond issuance coincides with higher rates across the board, all else equal).

By the end of the week, oil prices were even higher than they were on Tuesday, yet the 10yr Treasury yield remained slightly lower. In that limited sense, Wednesday’s announcement provided a reset for longer-term yields. But after that reset, yields continued higher for the same reasons they likely would have risen without the Treasury news–especially oil prices and heavy corporate bond issuance.

The following chart has the same lines as the previous chart, but with different y-axis scaling to highlight Wednesday’s “reset” for the bond market.

Mortgage rates rebounded to 6.76% on Thursday and 6.77% on Friday, up from 6.69% the previous Friday.

Friday offered little new direction, although a modest shift toward higher expected Fed rates added some late pressure. Next week brings a much busier economic calendar and the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, including comments from Fed Chair Warsh. Those events should give the market something more substantial than this week’s buyback melodrama.

Recently Released Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Monday, Aug 17

8:30

NY Fed Manufacturing

20.60

15.60

Tuesday, Aug 18

9:15

Industrial Production (%)

0.2%

0.3%

0.1%

10:00

-2.3%

0.3%

-5.4%

Wednesday, Aug 19

14:00

FOMC Minutes

Thursday, Aug 20

8:30

Aug/15

Jobless Claims (k)

Aug/15

206K

210K

209K

8:30

Philly Fed Business Index

47.4

41.4

Tuesday, Aug 25

9:00

2.3%

2.2%

9:00

2.1%

1.7%

1.6%

10:00

0.607M

0.62M

0.628M

10:00

CB Consumer Confidence (%)

89.4

90.2

90.8

Wednesday, Aug 26

8:30

Core PCE (y/y) (%)

3.3%

8:30

Durable goods (%)

1.1%

0.5%

0.3%

8:30

GDP (%)

1.5%

2.1%

Thursday, Aug 27

8:30

Aug/22

Jobless Claims (k)

Aug/22

203K

208K

206K

Friday, Aug 28

9:45

Chicago PMI

47.1

58.3

57.6

10:00

Fed Chair Warsh Speech

10:00

Consumer Sentiment (ip)

51.7

51.0

55.2

Event Importance:

Low

Moderate

Important

Very Important

Around the Web

Friday, August 21, 2026

Housing Starts Drop in July as Permits Point to Stronger Future Activity

Mortgage News Daily

Builder Confidence Technically Higher But Still Sideways in The Big Picture

Mortgage News Daily

No Major Changes in Mortgage Demand

Mortgage News Daily

Second Quarter Declines for Single-Family Built-to-Rent

Eye on Housing

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Bessent says Treasury buyback operation could be more than $4 billion

CNBC

Fed’s Musalem says hiking rates now could save more aggressive action later

Investing Live

Housing Affordability Worsens on Higher Mortgage Rates

Eye on Housing

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Fed officials saw need for rate hike if inflation doesn’t cool, minutes show

CNBC

Treasury announces upscaled buyback operation for longer-term debt, sending yields lower

CNBC

Eye on Housing

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Analysis-As US debt mounts, investors demand higher returns to lend

Rates matter — but execution matters more.

My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.

Average Mortgage Rates

Mortgage News Daily

Freddie Mac

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.87%

+0.06

15YR Fixed

6.38%

+0.03

30YR FHA

6.40%

+0.03

30YR Jumbo

6.92%

+0.02

7/6 SOFR

6.42%

+0.09

30YR VA

6.42%

+0.05

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.78%

-0.10

0.66

15YR Fixed

6.10%

-0.01

0.90

30YR FHA

6.46%

-0.13

0.82

30YR Jumbo

6.73%

-0.15

0.50

7/6 SOFR

5.98%

-0.18

0.88

Rate

Change

Points

30YR Fixed

6.66%

+0.45

0.00

15YR Fixed

5.98%

+0.51

0.00

MBS and Treasury

Price / Yield

Change

UMBS 5.5

98.91

–0.10

UMBS 6.0

101.06

–0.07

10 YR Treasury

4.777

+-0.19

30 YR Treasury

5.201

-0.05

Pricing as of:

8/31 10:55PM

Recent Housing Data

Value

Change

Mortgage Apps

245.3

-0.97%

4.06M

-0.73%

Builder Confidence

2.94%

Building Permits

1.44M

5.56%

Housing Starts

1.24M

-13.17%

259 W Channel Rd

Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation

Aug 14

Lowest Mortgage Rates in 4 Weeks After July’s Inflation Data

By Jay Bridges | Housing News | No Comments

Aug 14, 2026 5:14 PM

Rates may still be elevated in a general sense, but by the end of the week, they were as low as they’ve been since July 17th. If we have one thing to thank, it was this week’s inflation data.

Things didn’t start out on an optimistic note, however. Bond yields (which correlate with interest rates) moved sharply higher with oil prices on Monday as hopes for a U.S./Iran peace deal faded and risks increased of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Thankfully, prices stabilized by Tuesday morning and the bond market began positioning for the week’s two key inflation reports.

The first inflation report was the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday morning. While this is typically a much stronger source of inspiration than other inflation reports, it failed to have much of an impact this time around–largely because it came in almost perfectly in line with expectations. Bonds were apparently positioning for better news and thus ended up edging back toward higher rates by the end of the day.

That momentum shifted on Thursday after the release of July’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale level. PPI managed to come in slightly below forecasts in several key areas–a notable achievement given the higher fuel prices seen in July. Bond yields dropped sharply, helping mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in 4 weeks.

Friday’s Retail Sales data came in far below forecasts. At first glance, this offered hope that rates would go even lower (weaker economic data = lower rates, all else equal). But several caveats detracted from the rate-friendly message. Most of the drop in retail sales was accounted for by timing idiosyncrasies relating to Amazon’s Prime Day. In addition, the reported drop in fuel sales was distorted by seasonal factors. After adjusting for those caveats, the market treated the sales data as decent news with bond yields moving back up to mid-week highs.

Fortunately, mortgage-specific bonds held up better than 10yr Treasuries. Moreover, the average lender hadn’t fully adjusted Thursday’s rates to reflect the bond market rally. As such, Friday’s rates were only modestly higher. Bottom line, Thursday and Friday’s rates were effectively the lowest since July 17th.

Recently Released Economic Data

Time

Event

Period

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Tuesday, Aug 11

10:00

Existing home sales (ml)

4.06M

4.05M

4.09M

Wednesday, Aug 12

8:30

y/y CORE CPI (%)

2.5%

2.6%

Thursday, Aug 13

8:30

Core PPI y/y (%)

4.2%

4.7%

8:30

Aug/08

Jobless Claims (k)

Aug/08

209K

202K

199K

Friday, Aug 14