May 29, 2026 3:10 PM
Some news stories called out this week’s mortgage rates as being the highest since last August, and while many of them came out only yesterday, this is really old news from last week.
Both the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Freddie Mac release weekly mortgage rate surveys on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. These well-regarded reports have been around so long that many news outlets continue treating them as the definitive word on weekly mortgage rate movement. But reality is more nuanced.
While the rate trends captured in each survey are broadly accurate over time, they tend to do a better job of providing a stale, weekly snapshot rather than the timely look at rates that most borrowers are interested in. Both reports take a trailing 5 day average and report it the following day.
When the rate market is experiencing a decent amount of back-and-forth volatility, that often results in headlines like “highest mortgage rates since August 2025” when, in fact, the week ended with the lowest rates since May 14th. In the chart below, simply follow the blue line for the more timely look at daily rate changes. Bottom line, the highest levels since August happened last week (
as we reported
at the time), and we’ve recovered nicely since then.
This week’s improvement was primarily driven by the same thing that’s been responsible for most of the volatility over the past 3 months: the Iran war. Starting on Monday (when U.S. markets were still closed for the holiday), news came out regarding The U.S. and Iran being close to agreeing on a one page framework for a memo of understanding that would end the war and begin a 60 day process of hashing out additional details for a permanent peace agreement.
If “memo” sounds familiar, that’s because markets have been talking about it since early May (
as we covered at the time
). The underlying details of said memo don’t appear to have changed much during that time. Instead, the market is responding to its sense of how close that memo is to being made official. It’s not an oversimplification to say that every time a similar rumor/report hits the newswires, the more the market is willing to react.
Bottom line: yes, it is deja vu, but the market’s sense of incremental progress is technically “something new.”
Recently Released Economic Data
Time
Event
Period
Actual
Forecast
Prior
Tuesday, May 26
9:00
1.7%
9:00
0.8%
0.9%
10:00
CB Consumer Confidence (%)
93.1
92.8
Thursday, May 28
8:30
May/23
Jobless Claims (k)
May/23
215K
211K
209K
8:30
GDP (%)
1.6%
2.0%
0.5%
8:30
PCE (y/y) (%)
3.8%
3.5%
8:30
Core PCE (y/y) (%)
3.3%
3.2%
8:30
Durable goods (%)
7.9%
3.5%
0.8%
10:00
0.622M
0.67M
0.682M
Friday, May 29
9:45
Chicago PMI
62.7
50.5
49.2
Monday, Jun 01
10:00
ISM Manufacturing PMI
54.0
52.7
Tuesday, Jun 02
10:00
USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml)
7.618M
6.88M
6.866M
Wednesday, Jun 03
8:15
ADP jobs (k)
122K
117K
109K
10:00
ISM N-Mfg PMI
54.5
53.8
53.6
Thursday, Jun 04
8:30
May/30
Jobless Claims (k)
May/30
225K
213K
215K
Friday, Jun 05
8:30
Unemployment rate mm (%)
4.3%
8:30
Non Farm Payrolls (k)
172K
115K
Event Importance:
Low
Moderate
Important
Very Important
Around the Web
Friday, May 29, 2026
Mortgage News Daily
Fed’s Daly says she doesn’t see mass unemployment or displacement from AI
Investing Live
No Surprise: Last Week’s Higher Rates Hit Refinance Demand
Mortgage News Daily
Rent Prices Continue to Rise, While Absorption Remains Low
Eye on Housing
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warns against hiking interest rates because of inflation spike
CNBC
Thursday, May 28, 2026
Closer to home: Americans are moving less and staying local
Bank of America
Core inflation hit an annual rate of 3.3% in April, as expected, Feds preferred gauge shows
CNBC
Fed’s Cook Prepared to Raise Rates If Inflation Lingers
Yahoo Finance
Wednesday, May 27, 2026
U.S. oil falls below $89 on report Iran agreement would restore Hormuz traffic in one month
CNBC
Iran’s state TV says it has a draft of the initial unofficial framework for the MoU
Investing Live
Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Fed’s Kashkari: The Fed could embark on a series of hikes in response to inflation.
Investing Live
Consumer confidence stands at 93.1 in May
CNBC
First Quarter 2026 Multifamily Construction Data
Eye on Housing
Treasury yields slide after Memorial Day break as traders weigh Iran peace prospects
CNBC
Rates matter — but execution matters more.
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Average Mortgage Rates
Mortgage News Daily
Freddie Mac
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.87%
+0.06
15YR Fixed
6.38%
+0.03
30YR FHA
6.40%
+0.03
30YR Jumbo
6.92%
+0.02
7/6 SOFR
6.42%
+0.09
30YR VA
6.42%
+0.05
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.78%
-0.10
0.66
15YR Fixed
6.10%
-0.01
0.90
30YR FHA
6.46%
-0.13
0.82
30YR Jumbo
6.73%
-0.15
0.50
7/6 SOFR
5.98%
-0.18
0.88
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.66%
+0.45
0.00
15YR Fixed
5.98%
+0.51
0.00
MBS and Treasury
Price / Yield
Change
UMBS 5.5
98.91
–0.10
UMBS 6.0
101.06
–0.07
10 YR Treasury
4.777
+-0.19
30 YR Treasury
5.272
+-0.44
Pricing as of:
8/31 10:54PM
Recent Housing Data
Value
Change
Mortgage Apps
245.3
-0.97%
4.06M
-0.73%
Builder Confidence
2.94%
Building Permits
1.44M
5.56%
Housing Starts
1.24M
-13.17%
259 W Channel Rd
Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation