Whereas the entire month of March was “up, up, and away” for interest rates, April has been far calmer by comparison. The average lender ended the week in slightly lower territory and there was less volatility to boot. Refreshingly, the lower volatility means that weekly surveys were aligned with daily rates in showing the modest drop (unlike last week).
That said, there’s no question that the Iran war remains the most compelling source of market motivation. Inflation is the key reason — specifically inflation implied by oil prices. Tuesday’s ceasefire news had the biggest impact. It caused a quick drop in oil prices. Interest rates (represented by 10yr Treasury yields) followed, but everything bounced back a bit as the ceasefire was increasingly tested in various ways in the second half of the week.
As the mortgage rate chart suggested, there’s still a long way to go before erasing the war-related impacts.
Inflation Data: CPI and ISM Services
Unlike last week, this week offered better evidence of oil prices impacting official inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came out on Friday at the highest year-over-year level since 2024.
The bond market has been hoping to see monthly inflation growing at a pace just below 0.2%. This latest report was more than 4 times faster, and twice as fast as any month from the past several years.
The inflation is showing up in other data as well. This week’s most notable example (apart from CPI) was the price index component of the ISM Services data, which hit the highest level since 2022. The month-over-month change was a problem — ISM hasn’t recorded a bigger change since 2012.
Outlook
The upcoming week is much lighter in terms of scheduled economic data, leaving the market free to focus solely on energy price fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments.
Recently Released Economic Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Apr 6 — 10:00 | ISM Non-Mfg PMI | Mar | 54.0 | 55 | 56.1 |
| Mon Apr 6 — 10:00 | ISM Services Prices | Mar | 70.7 | 63.0 | |
| Tue Apr 7 — 8:30 | Durable Goods m/m | Feb | -1.4% | -0.5% | 0% |
| Tue Apr 7 — 11:00 | Consumer Inflation Expectations | Mar | 3.4% | 3% | |
| Thu Apr 9 — 8:30 | Jobless Claims | Apr/04 | 219K | 210K | 202K |
| Thu Apr 9 — 8:30 | PCE y/y | Feb | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Thu Apr 9 — 8:30 | GDP | Q4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| Fri Apr 10 — 8:30 | Headline CPI m/m | Mar | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Fri Apr 10 — 8:30 | Headline CPI y/y | Mar | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Fri Apr 10 — 10:00 | Consumer Sentiment | Apr | 47.6 | 52 | 53.3 |
| Mon Apr 13 — 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Mar | 3.98M | 4.06M | 4.09M |
Upcoming Economic Data
| Time | Event | Period | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Apr 14 — 8:30 | PPI y/y | Mar | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| Tue Apr 14 — 8:30 | PPI m/m | Mar | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Wed Apr 15 — 8:30 | Import Prices m/m | Mar | 2% | 1.3% |
| Wed Apr 15 — 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Apr | 38 | 38 |
| Thu Apr 16 — 8:30 | Jobless Claims | Apr/11 | 215K | 219K |
| Thu Apr 16 — 8:30 | Philly Fed Business Index | Apr | 9 | 18.1 |
Average Mortgage Rates
Mortgage News Daily
| Product | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30YR Fixed | 6.41% | +0.02 |
| 15YR Fixed | 6.00% | +0.01 |
| 30YR FHA | 5.92% | +0.01 |
| 30YR Jumbo | 6.56% | +0.01 |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.06% | +0.04 |
| 30YR VA | 5.95% | +0.02 |
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
| Product | Rate | Change | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30YR Fixed | 6.51% | -0.37 | 0.61 |
| 15YR Fixed | 5.90% | -0.21 | 0.74 |
| 30YR FHA | 6.22% | -0.37 | 0.73 |
| 30YR Jumbo | 6.54% | -0.34 | 0.35 |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 5.60% | -0.56 | 0.68 |
Freddie Mac
| Product | Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30YR Fixed | 6.37% | +0.16 |
| 15YR Fixed | 5.74% | +0.27 |
MBS and Treasury Markets
| Security | Price / Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| UMBS 5.0 | 99.11 | +0.14 |
| UMBS 5.5 | 100.86 | +0.11 |
| 10 YR Treasury | 4.306% | -0.24 |
| 30 YR Treasury | 4.907% | -0.12 |
Recent Housing Data
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Applications | 276 | -0.83% |
| Builder Confidence | 38 | +5.56% |
| Existing Home Sales | 4.09M | +1.74% |
| New Home Sales | 587K | -21.21% |
| Pending Home Sales | 70.9 | -1.25% |
Notable Headlines This Week
- Mortgage Rates Remain Surprisingly Calm — Mortgage News Daily (Apr 10)
- Mortgage Demand Contracted at a Slower Pace Last Week — Mortgage News Daily (Apr 10)
- Consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, as energy prices spiked due to Iran conflict — CNBC (Apr 10)
- UMich preliminary April consumer sentiment 47.6 versus 52.0 expected — Investing Live (Apr 10)
- A Record 34% of February Home Sellers Cut Their List Price — Redfin (Apr 9)
- FOMC Minutes: Growing Number of Policymakers Saw a Strong Case For Two-Sided Description For Future Rate Decisions — Federal Reserve (Apr 8)
- Fed’s Williams: Iran war will drive up headline inflation — Investing Live (Apr 7)
- Realtors report buyers and sellers exiting market in Q1 2026 — CNBC (Apr 7)
Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation