Mortgage Rates Didn’t Fall as Much as The Market Suggested

Mortgage rates ended the week at their lowest levels in more than a month — but the move fell short of what bond market signals suggested was possible. While the mortgage market tracks bond market moves closely, it often lags on the way toward lower rates, and this week was a clear example of that dynamic. The week ahead hinges on bond market direction, which remains driven primarily by geopolitical developments, particularly the Iran war and the status of the Strait of Hormuz.

Recently Released Economic Data

Event	Period	Actual	Forecast	Prior
Existing Home Sales	Mar	3.98M	4.06M	4.09M
PPI y/y	Mar	4%	4.6%	3.4%
Core PPI y/y	Mar	3.8%	4.1%	3.9%
NY Fed Manufacturing	Apr	11.00	-0.5	-0.20
Jobless Claims	Apr/11	207K	215K	218K
Philly Fed Business Index	Apr	26.7	10	18.1
Industrial Production	Mar	-0.5%	0.1%	0.2%

Upcoming Economic Data

Event	Period	Forecast	Prior
Retail Sales	Mar	1.4%	0.6%
Pending Home Sales	Mar	0.1%	1.8%
Jobless Claims	Apr/18	212K	207K
S&P Global Services PMI	Apr	50	49.8
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Apr	52.5	52.3
Consumer Sentiment	Apr	47.6	53.3

Current Mortgage Rates (Mortgage News Daily)

Loan Type	Rate	Change
30-Year Fixed	6.30%	+0.01
15-Year Fixed	5.91%	0.00
30-Year FHA	5.88%	0.00
30-Year Jumbo	6.52%	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	5.94%	+0.03
30-Year VA	5.89%	0.00

MBS and Treasury Pricing

Security	Price	Change
UMBS 5.0	99.41	-0.09
UMBS 5.5	101.02	-0.07
10-Year Treasury	4.255	+/-0.07
30-Year Treasury	4.886	-0.38

Recent Housing Data

Indicator	Value	Change
Mortgage Applications	276	-0.83%
Builder Confidence	34	-10.53%
Existing Home Sales	3.98M	-2.69%
Pending Home Sales	72.1	+1.69%
Building Permits	1.38M	-5.43%

Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation