Jul 02, 2026 2:01 PM
Last week’s newsletter flagged an uncommonly high level of quarter-end trading volatility as a key contributor to a surprise mid-week rate spike. We got another dose of that drama this week, but things calmed down by the end.
Bond market drama creates rate drama because rates are directly based on bonds. Due to the immense size and complexity of the bond market (and broader financial market), and because trading strategies can vary based on who’s doing the trading, there is no satisfying way to measure exactly why things happen the way they do at quarter-end.
What we do know is that a massive amount of money changes hands in a very short time window, with a lot of last-minute settlement taking place right up to the end-of-quarter cut-off. There’s also quarter-end trading that begins impacting trading levels several weeks in advance, but it was the “last minute” stuff that hit the bond market this week.
This resulted in Tuesday’s rates jumping quickly higher for no apparent reason. Wednesday added a bit of an aftershock as mortgage lenders got caught up with Tuesday’s volatility (some lenders don’t fully account for all the volatility in a trading day if it happens late enough in the day).
All told, this took the average 30yr fixed rate an eighth of a point higher on the week as of Wednesday. What happened next was a mixed blessing depending on which side you root for. Fans of strong jobs growth got bad news on Thursday morning with June’s job count coming in at 57k–well short of the 110k median forecast.
But as is ever the case, bad news for the labor market is generally good news for rates. Bonds improved following the data and mortgage rates managed to recover almost half of the ground lost earlier in the week.
Nonetheless, the week ends with 30yr fixed rates 0.07% higher than last week for the average lender. NOTE: weekly survey-based rate data (i.e. MBA/Freddie Mac) showed lower rates this week because their methodologies have not yet captured Wednesday’s rate spike (Freddie technically has, but its impact is diluted because it’s averaged with the preceding 4 business days).
Bottom line: rates are higher this week, but thankfully still not as high as they were in early June or mid-May. Next week brings a smattering of economic data in addition to the minutes of the most recent Fed meeting. The market continues pricing in a higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes by the end of the year.
Recently Released Economic Data
Time
Event
Period
Actual
Forecast
Prior
Tuesday, Jun 30
9:00
1.7%
9:00
1.1%
0.9%
0.8%
9:45
Chicago PMI
56.7
58.1
62.7
10:00
USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml)
7.594M
7.30M
7.618M
Wednesday, Jul 01
8:15
ADP jobs (k)
113K
122K
9:00
Fed Chair Warsh Speech
10:00
ISM Manufacturing PMI
53.3
54.0
Thursday, Jul 02
8:30
Jun/27
Jobless Claims (k)
Jun/27
215K
220K
215K
8:30
Non Farm Payrolls (k)
110K
172K
8:30
Unemployment rate mm (%)
4.2%
4.3%
Monday, Jul 06
10:00
ISM N-Mfg PMI
54.0
54.5
Wednesday, Jul 08
14:00
FOMC Minutes
Thursday, Jul 09
8:30
Jul/04
Jobless Claims (k)
Jul/04
215K
218K
215K
10:00
Existing home sales (ml)
4.09M
4.20M
4.17M
Event Importance:
Low
Moderate
Important
Very Important
Around the Web
Thursday, July 2, 2026
Mortgage Applications Flat, Purchase Activity Edges Higher
Mortgage News Daily
U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2%
CNBC
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Residential Construction Spending Increases in May Due to Remodeling
Eye on Housing
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 53.3 versus 54.0 estimate
Investing Live
Fed Chairman Warsh: Inflation expectations and risks have come down
CNBC
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Consumer Confidence Inched Up in June
Eye on Housing
Construction Job Openings Increase
Eye on Housing
JOLTs job openings 7.594M vs 7.300M estimate
Investing Live
Rates matter — but execution matters more.
I call the listing agent on every offer to proactively position your buyer. I’m available 7 days a week because deals don’t happen Monday through Friday. And when needed, we can utilize our “cash-like” offer program to give your buyers a competitive edge in multiple-offer situations.
My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.
Average Mortgage Rates
Mortgage News Daily
Freddie Mac
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.87%
+0.06
15YR Fixed
6.38%
+0.03
30YR FHA
6.40%
+0.03
30YR Jumbo
6.92%
+0.02
7/6 SOFR
6.42%
+0.09
30YR VA
6.42%
+0.05
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.78%
-0.10
0.66
15YR Fixed
6.10%
-0.01
0.90
30YR FHA
6.46%
-0.13
0.82
30YR Jumbo
6.73%
-0.15
0.50
7/6 SOFR
5.98%
-0.18
0.88
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.66%
+0.45
0.00
15YR Fixed
5.98%
+0.51
0.00
MBS and Treasury
Price / Yield
Change
UMBS 5.5
98.91
–0.10
UMBS 6.0
101.06
–0.07
10 YR Treasury
4.777
+-0.19
30 YR Treasury
5.201
-0.05
Pricing as of:
8/31 10:55PM
Recent Housing Data
Value
Change
Mortgage Apps
245.3
-0.97%
4.06M
-0.73%
Builder Confidence
2.94%
Building Permits
1.44M
5.56%
Housing Starts
1.24M
-13.17%
259 W Channel Rd
Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation