May 08, 2026 3:06 PM
Wednesday ended up being the most interesting day of the week for rate movement thanks to headlines suggesting The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one page memo to end the war.
Why a memo?
A more formal peace agreement will be a lot longer than one page and will take a lot more time to hash out. If parties can agree, in principle, on the ultimate details, it allows the war to end immediately rather than wait for the formal agreement.
Why do rates like this news?
Rates are based on bonds. Inflation is bad for bonds (i.e. it pushes rates higher). Higher oil prices contribute to higher inflation. And, of course, the war has been responsible for a huge surge in oil prices. Thus, ending the war should result in relatively lower oil prices, inflation, and rates.
We’ve seen this dynamic play out frequently since the start of the war. It’s easiest to see when we use 10yr Treasury yields as a stand-in for mortgage rates because mortgage rates are only updated 1-3 times a day.
How did mortgage rates react?
Mortgage rates began the week at the highest levels in more than a month. Wednesday singlehandedly took average daily rates back to last Friday’s levels according to MND’s daily rate index. Meanwhile, weekly rate surveys (which don’t capture movement in a timely way) showed rates moving higher.
What about the rest of the week?
This weekly newsletter would normally have quite a lot to say about Friday’s jobs report. The payroll count came in at 115k versus a median forecast of 62k. At almost any other time in history, this would be a surefire recipe for a rapid rate spike to end the week.
But labor market dynamics have been changing in a way that makes the payroll count more of a moving target compared to the unemployment rate (another statistic from the same jobs report), and that came in right in line with expectations at 4.3%.
Labor market dynamics aside, the rate market is simply preoccupied with the war and oil prices. All of the above allowed rates to drift just a hair lower on Friday.
What’s next?
The war will continue as the focal point next week, but there will be more economic data. In some ways, it could be more important that the jobs report because two of the reports will provide an update on inflation for the month of April (the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index on Wednesday).
Recently Released Economic Data
Time
Event
Period
Actual
Forecast
Prior
Tuesday, May 05
10:00
0.682M
0.65M
0.587M
Wednesday, May 06
8:15
ADP jobs (k)
109K
Thursday, May 07
8:30
May/02
Jobless Claims (k)
May/02
200K
205K
189K
11:00
Consumer Inflation Expectations
3.6%
3.4%
Friday, May 08
8:30
Unemployment rate mm (%)
4.3%
8:30
Non Farm Payrolls (k)
115K
178K
10:00
Consumer Sentiment (ip)
48.2
49.5
49.8
Monday, May 11
10:00
Existing home sales (ml)
4.02M
4.05M
3.98M
Tuesday, May 12
8:30
y/y Headline CPI (%)
3.8%
3.7%
3.3%
Wednesday, May 13
8:30
PPI y/y
4.9%
Thursday, May 14
8:30
May/09
Jobless Claims (k)
May/09
211K
205K
200K
8:30
Retail Sales (%)
0.5%
1.7%
Friday, May 15
8:30
NY Fed Manufacturing
19.60
11.00
9:15
Industrial Production (%)
0.7%
0.3%
-0.5%
Event Importance:
Low
Moderate
Important
Very Important
Around the Web
Friday, May 8, 2026
The Federal Reserve is quickly running out of reasons to cut interest rates
CNBC
Higher Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Only Modestly
Mortgage News Daily
U.S. payrolls increased 115,000 in April, more than expected; unemployment at 4.3%
CNBC
Thursday, May 7, 2026
Jobless claims rise, productivity misses forecast
CNBC
US construction spending for March 0.6% versus 0.2% estimate
Investing Live
Private Residential Construction Spending Increases in March
Eye on Housing
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Treasury yields tumble on report of U.S.-Iran peace plan
CNBC
Slight Rise for Open Construction Jobs in March
Eye on Housing
Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Mortgage lenders now have more credit score options. What homebuyers should know
CNBC
Rates matter — but execution matters more.
I call the listing agent on every offer to proactively position your buyer. I’m available 7 days a week because deals don’t happen Monday through Friday. And when needed, we can utilize our “cash-like” offer program to give your buyers a competitive edge in multiple-offer situations.
My goal is simple: make your offers stronger and your escrows smoother.
Average Mortgage Rates
Mortgage News Daily
Freddie Mac
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.87%
+0.06
15YR Fixed
6.38%
+0.03
30YR FHA
6.40%
+0.03
30YR Jumbo
6.92%
+0.02
7/6 SOFR
6.42%
+0.09
30YR VA
6.42%
+0.05
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.78%
-0.10
0.66
15YR Fixed
6.10%
-0.01
0.90
30YR FHA
6.46%
-0.13
0.82
30YR Jumbo
6.73%
-0.15
0.50
7/6 SOFR
5.98%
-0.18
0.88
Rate
Change
Points
30YR Fixed
6.66%
+0.45
0.00
15YR Fixed
5.98%
+0.51
0.00
MBS and Treasury
Price / Yield
Change
UMBS 5.5
98.91
–0.10
UMBS 6.0
101.06
–0.07
10 YR Treasury
4.777
+-0.19
30 YR Treasury
5.272
+-0.44
Pricing as of:
8/31 10:54PM
Recent Housing Data
Value
Change
Mortgage Apps
245.3
-0.97%
4.06M
-0.73%
Builder Confidence
2.94%
Building Permits
1.44M
5.56%
Housing Starts
1.24M
-13.17%
259 W Channel Rd
Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation