If there were a movie about mortgage rates, this week would be the part where they say “it’s quiet… almost TOO quiet.” Case in point: MND’s daily mortgage rate index has held inside a range of 0.04% since last Tuesday.
This kind of thing happens several times per year. The previous two instances gave way to noticeably sharper movement, but there are older examples that resolved uneventfully.
The present indecision reflects the fact that the broader market is waiting for the next big development in the war. Oil prices and bond yields have generally moved higher as the war escalated and lower as prospects for peace improved. They bounced a bit higher this week due to uncertainty surrounding the state of the ceasefire and peace negotiations.
Economic data was very light this week with Tuesday’s Retail Sales being the only big ticket report. Even then, the market preferred to trade war headlines and corporate earnings, with the latter helping stocks hit another all-time high.
Next week’s economic calendar is slightly more robust, but the market will likely continue to focus on the war-related headlines for primary cues. In addition to the data, there will be a Fed rate announcement on Wednesday, but the market has long since concluded that there is a zero percent chance of a cut or hike.
How about later in the year? With the DOJ dropping its case against Fed Chair Powell, some people expect a better trajectory for rates later this year under the presumed new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. But the traders who bet on those outcomes disagree. There’s been very little change in Fed rate expectations over the past several weeks. In short, before the war, the market thought we’d see at least 2 rate cuts in 2026. Now it sees zero. This could change in the future, but it would depend on inflation and economic data.
Recently Released Economic Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 21 | |||||
| 8:30 | Retail Sales (%) | Mar | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 8:30 | Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Mar | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 10:00 | Pending Home Sales (%) | Mar | 1.5% | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| Thursday, Apr 23 | |||||
| 8:30 | Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/18 | 214K | 212K | 207K |
| 9:45 | S&P Global Services PMI | Apr | 51.3 | 50 | 49.8 |
| 9:45 | S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Apr | 54.0 | 52.5 | 52.3 |
| Friday, Apr 24 | |||||
| 10:00 | Consumer Sentiment | Apr | 49.8 | 47.6 | 53.3 |
Upcoming Economic Data
| Time | Event | Period | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 28 | ||||
| 9:00 | Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y | Feb | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 9:00 | FHFA Home Prices y/y | Feb | — | 1.6% |
| 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence | Apr | 89.2 | 91.8 |
| Wednesday, Apr 29 | ||||
| 8:30 | Housing Starts (ml) | Mar | 1.40M | — |
| 8:30 | Building Permits (ml) | Mar | 1.39M | — |
| 8:30 | Durable Goods (%) | Mar | 0.5% | -1.4% |
| 14:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | — | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 14:30 | Fed Press Conference | — | — | — |
| Thursday, Apr 30 | ||||
| 8:30 | Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/25 | 215K | 214K |
| 8:30 | PCE y/y (%) | Mar | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| 8:30 | Employment Costs (%) | Q1 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 8:30 | GDP (%) | Q1 | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| 9:45 | Chicago PMI | Apr | 53 | 52.8 |
| Friday, May 1 | ||||
| 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Apr | 53 | 52.7 |
Average Mortgage Rates
| Product | MND Rate | MBA Rate | Freddie Mac |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30YR Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | 6.23% |
| 15YR Fixed | 5.92% | 5.75% | 5.58% |
| 30YR FHA | 5.91% | 6.10% | — |
| 30YR Jumbo | 6.52% | 6.43% | — |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 5.95% | 5.48% | — |
| 30YR VA | 5.93% | — | — |
MBS and Treasury Markets
| Security | Price / Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|
| UMBS 5.0 | 99.02 | -0.20 |
| UMBS 5.5 | 100.86 | -0.06 |
| 10 YR Treasury | 4.341 | -0.31 |
| 30 YR Treasury | 4.944 | -0.53 |
Recent Housing Data
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Applications | 303.3 | +7.94% |
| Builder Confidence (NAHB) | 34 | -10.53% |
| Existing Home Sales | 3.98M | -2.69% |
| Pending Home Sales | 73.7 | +2.22% |
| Building Permits | 1.38M | -5.43% |
Around the Web
- Strong Purchase Demand Drives Solid Week For Mortgage Applications (Mortgage News Daily, Apr 24)
- Fed is likely to hold rates steady — here’s how that impacts consumer costs (CNBC, Apr 24)
- US Dept of Justice to drop probe of Jerome Powell (Investing Live, Apr 24)
- Major Homebuilders See Rising Orders but Shrinking Profits as Incentives Squeeze Margins (Realtor.com, Apr 24)
- Treasury yields little changed as ceasefire optimism fades (CNBC, Apr 24)
- Flash manufacturing PMI comes in at 54.0, beating estimates (CNBC, Apr 23)
- Jobless claims rose more than forecast last week (CNBC, Apr 23)
- Fannie and Freddie to Allow Credit Scores Based on Rent and Utilities Payments (Realtor.com, Apr 22)
- Kevin Warsh arrives on Capitol Hill for Fed confirmation hearing (CNBC, Apr 21)
- Population Growth and Housing Supply Dynamics at the County Level in 2025 (Eye on Housing, Apr 21)
- U.S. private employers added an average of 54,750 jobs (PR Newswire, Apr 21)
- US March retail sales +1.7% vs +1.4% expected (Investing Live, Apr 21)
- Construction Workforce Shifts: Fewer Tradesmen, More White-Collar Jobs (Eye on Housing, Apr 20)
Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation