The previous week demonstrated exceptional stability in mortgage rates, which began at multi-year lows and maintained record-setting consistency. This week shifted dramatically in the opposite direction — substantial volatility in 10-year Treasury yields drove rates back into the early February range.
Primary Driver: Oil Prices and Geopolitical Events
The most significant news during the first four trading days stemmed from a sharp spike in oil prices triggered by armed conflict in Iran. As a critical component of shipping costs, elevated oil prices carry direct implications for inflation trajectories. Interest rate markets respond to inflation considerations, and the relationship between oil prices and bond market movements became “blatantly obvious” on a weekly timeframe.
Labor Market Data
Nonfarm Payrolls delivered an unexpectedly weak result at negative 92,000 positions versus a median forecast of positive 59,000 additions. This substantial miss represents a significant deterioration in employment growth. Unemployment Rate ticked upward to 4.4% from 4.3% — a level that, while historically low, is trending in the wrong direction.
Additional Economic Indicators
- ISM Manufacturing (prices paid): Reached its highest level since 2022, signaling increased cost pressures in production sectors.
- ISM Services: At multi-year highs, demonstrating ongoing economic resilience despite inflationary pressures.
Rate Movement — Keep Perspective
While rates jumped this week, the increase remains relatively modest when examined against historical patterns. The week’s movement reflected a broader market reaction to multiple concurrent economic factors — not a fundamental shift in the rate environment.
Current Mortgage Rates
| Loan Type | Rate |
|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.79% |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 5.51% |
Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation