Home » Posts » From 3 Year Lows to 7 Month Highs in 2 Weeks
February concluded with 30-year fixed mortgage rates reaching their lowest point in over three years. However, the market experienced a significant upward movement in early March, with rates climbing to seven-month highs within a two-week span.
Key Market Analysis
The primary driver of this rate increase is geopolitical conflict. Wars have various effects on financial markets depending on geography, U.S. involvement, and the impact on the global economy.
The mechanism is straightforward: oil price volatility influences transportation costs globally, creating inflation expectations. If war in an oil-producing region is pushing oil prices abruptly higher, the bond market is forced to anticipate higher inflation in the future.
Oil and Rates Relationship
While oil and interest rates often move together due to shared economic factors, they also have opposing motivations related to currency valuation. Examining different timeframes and chart scaling helps clarify the true relationship between these two variables.
Federal Reserve Outlook
There is no chance the Fed will be cutting rates in light of current inflation risks. Rate cuts remain unlikely until inflation indicators improve or economic deterioration occurs.
Economic Data Released (Week of March 10–13, 2026)
Date
Event
Actual
Forecast
Prior
Mar 10
Existing Home Sales
4.09M
3.89M
3.91M
Mar 11
Core CPI (m/m)
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
Mar 11
Core CPI (y/y)
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Mar 12
Jobless Claims
213K
215K
213K
Mar 13
Core PCE (m/m)
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
Mar 13
Core PCE (y/y)
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
Mar 13
Q4 GDP
0.7%
1.4%
4.4%
Mar 13
Durable Goods
0%
1.2%
-1.4%
Mar 13
Job Openings
6.946M
6.70M
6.542M
Mar 13
Consumer Sentiment
55.5
55
56.6
Upcoming Economic Data
Date
Event
Forecast
Mar 17
Pending Home Sales
-0.5%
Mar 18
Core PPI (m/m)
0.3%
Mar 18
Fed Interest Rate Decision
3.75%
Mar 19
Jobless Claims
215K
Mar 19
New Home Sales
0.72M
Current Mortgage Rates
Mortgage News Daily
Product
Rate
Change
30YR Fixed
6.36%
↓0.05
15YR Fixed
5.95%
↓0.06
30YR FHA
5.87%
—
30YR Jumbo
6.58%
↓0.02
7/6 SOFR ARM
5.74%
↓0.04
30YR VA
5.89%
—
MBA
Product
Rate
Change
30YR Fixed
6.19%
↓0.69 (0.58 pts)
15YR Fixed
5.54%
↓0.57 (0.68 pts)
30YR FHA
6.02%
↓0.57 (0.70 pts)
30YR Jumbo
6.26%
↓0.62 (0.30 pts)
7/6 SOFR ARM
5.26%
↓0.90 (0.64 pts)
Freddie Mac
Product
Rate
Change
30YR Fixed
6.11%
↓0.10
15YR Fixed
5.50%
↑0.03
MBS and Treasury Pricing (as of 3/16 1:31 PM EST)
Security
Price/Yield
Change
UMBS 5.0
99.15
+0.26
UMBS 5.5
100.80
+0.16
10 YR Treasury
4.235
-0.034
30 YR Treasury
4.873
-0.044
Recent Housing Data
Metric
Value
Change
Mortgage Apps
389.6
+3.21%
Existing Home Sales
4.09M
+1.74%
Pending Home Sales
70.9
-1.25%
New Home Sales
745K
-1.72%
Builder Confidence
38
+2.7%
Source: US Housing Market Weekly — Jay Bridges, Mortgage Lender, Priority Capital Corporation
